Monthly Archives: marzo 2014

Gartner’s 2013 Emerging Technologies hype cycle focuses on humans and machines @Medici_Manager

Summary: New technologies take time to mature, but Gartner’s annual hype cycle diagram provides a guide to whether they are being overhyped and how close they are to becoming productive. http://zd.net/1c2wvEb

The 2013 edition of Gartner’s long-running Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies focuses on “the evolving relationship between humans and machines … due to the increased hype around smart machines, cognitive computing and the Internet of Things.”

Gartner fellow Jackie Fenn, who came up with the hype cycle idea in 1995, says “there are actually three main trends at work. These are augmenting humans with technology — for example, an employee with a wearable computing device; machines replacing humans — for example, a cognitive virtual assistant acting as an automated customer representative; and humans and machines working alongside each other — for example, a mobile robot working with a warehouse employee to move many boxes.”

Fenn’s collaborator Hung LeHong says these trends have been made possible because machines are becoming better at understanding humans and humans are becoming better at understanding machines. “At the same time, machines and humans are getting smarter by working together.”

The three main trends are:

1. Augmenting humans with technology

Companies can improve workers’ performance or the level of customer service using augmentation devices such as wearable computers. Gartner says: “Organizations interested in these technologies should look to bioacoustic sensing, quantified self, 3D bioprinting, brain-computer interface, human augmentation, speech-to-speech translation, neurobusiness, wearable user interfaces, augmented reality and gesture control.”

2. Machines replacing humans

Robots have been used on the factory floor for decades but improvements in technology mean there is still plenty of scope for automating both physical and mental procedures. Gartner says: “Organizations should look to some of these representative technologies for sources of innovation on how machines can take over human tasks: volumetric and holographic displays, autonomous vehicles, mobile robots and virtual assistants.”

3. Humans and machines working alongside each other

Gartner says: “The main benefits of having machines working alongside humans are the ability to access the best of both worlds (that is, productivity and speed from machines, emotional intelligence and the ability to handle the unknown from humans). Technologies that represent and support this trend include autonomous vehicles, mobile robots, natural language question and answering, and virtual assistants.” One example is IBM’s Watson working alongside doctors and providing natural-language question answering (NLQA).

At this futuristic level, Gartner says “enterprises should consider quantum computing, prescriptive analytics, neurobusiness, NLQA, big data, complex event processing, in-memory database management system (DBMS), cloud computing, in-memory analytics and predictive analytics.”

Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2013
Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2013 Source: Gartner

The point of the Hype Cycle is to give enterprises some idea how far various technologies are from the “plateau of productivity” where they can be more easily adopted. The cycle has five stages, for which Gartner uses terminology reminiscent of John Bunyan’s Pilgrim’s Progress. It starts with a Technology Trigger: a new invention or innovation. That gets the attention of the media, analysts, conference organizers etc, which drives the idea to a Peak of Inflated Expectations. At this point, disillusion sets in. As I noted in the Guardian in 2005, “The press, having overhyped it, knocks it for being overhyped, and it descends into the Trough of Disillusionment.” Successful innovations pass through the trough and start to climb the Slope of Enlightenment before reaching the Plateau of Productivity.

In the 2013 hype cycle, Technology Triggers include SmartDust, brain-computer interfaces, and quantum computing, all of which Gartner reckons are 10 years or more from the plateau. It reckons autonomous vehicles and biochips are 5-10 years away.

Technologies at the overhyped stage include “big data”, consumer 3D printing, gamification, and wearable user interfaces.

Overhyped technologies now plunging into the Trough of Disillusionment include mobile health monitoring, NFC and cloud computing.

Technologies that are climbing the slope or already becoming productive include gesture controls, biometric authentication systems, speech recognition and predictive analytics.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2013 ($1,995) “includes a video in which Ms Fenn provides more details”. Fenn and LeHong are also hosting two free webinars at 3pm and 6pm (UK time) on August 21, registration required.

Topics: Emerging TechEnterprise SoftwareTech Industry

About 

Jack Schofield spent the 1970s editing photography magazines before becoming editor of an early UK computer magazine, Practical Computing. In 1983, he started writing a weekly computer column for the Guardian, and joined the staff to launch the newspaper’s weekly computer supplement in 1985. This section launched the Guardian’s first website and, in 2001, its first real blog. When the printed section was dropped after 25 years and a couple of reincarnations, he felt it was a time for a change….

L’ammissione alle specialità mediche in Gran Bretagna

Girolamo Sirchia

In Gran Bretagna è in corso di sperimentazione un nuovo test di ammissione alle specialità mediche (specialty selection test, SST). Questo consta di due parti: 1) un test di problem solving, che mira a valutare le conoscenze cliniche, 2) un test di giudizio su situazioni, che mira a valutare i valori, l’integrità, la sensibilità e l’empatia, la capacità di lavorare in squadra e di sostenere pressioni psicologiche e lavorative.

Il test si compone di 90 domande in tutto, che sono valutate per via automatica elettronica. Forse l’SST potrebbe utilmente sostituire il numero chiuso di ingresso alle specialità, perché ammettendo solo i migliori la selezione avverrebbe sulla qualità e non sulla quantità, qualità che può essere maggiore o minore aumentando o riducendo il livello di complessità delle domande.

(Carr A e Irish B. The new specialty selection test. BMJ Careers 12 ottobre 2013, p. 10)

View original post

5 giorni su 7 a 340 euro? Botta e risposta sulle condizioni di #lavoro dei giovani professionisti @corriereit @drsilenzi

Andrea Silenzi, MD, MPH

Botta e risposta nata dalla testimonianza di una giovane che sta tentando di entrare nel mondo della “comunicazione” a cui, successivamente, risponde un giovane imprenditore di comunicazione.

Tempo stimato per la lettura 5 minuti.

La lettura li vale tutti per capire cosa sta accadendo in questo momento in Italia.

Immagine

di Giorgia D.

Dobbiamo imparare, a volte, a dire no. Dire no a quel datore di lavoro furbetto che ti offre due spiccioli per un impiego che meriti e per il quale hai studiato.

Io ho detto di no ma, finché ci saranno ragazzi che accetteranno qualsivoglia compromesso, la situazione in Italia non cambierà.

Ho 26 anni e sono una giornalista praticante. Vivo nelle Marche ma sto cercando lavoro dove si dice che ancora qualcosina ci sia: Milano.  Ho mandato il curriculum a un’agenzia di comunicazione che, dopo un primo colloquio, ha deciso di assumermi. Bello vero?

Sì, peccato che…

View original post 795 altre parole

A right to a personal health budget @tkelsey1 @Medici_Manager @pash22

Luke O’Shea, NHS England’s Head of Patient Participation, explains why a “quiet ministerial announcement” is so significant.

http://bit.ly/1h4VSr0

Last week in Parliament, ministers quietly made an announcement : From October next year, thousands people in receipt of Continuing Health Care funding will gain a new legal ‘right to have’ a Personal Health Budget.

The announcement went largely unnoticed by the media, patients and professionals.  Usually Personal Health Budget announcements generate Marmite-like reactions – either heralding the end of the NHS as we know it, or being seen a panacea for a person-centred NHS. But last week there was little reaction.

However, this is a significant announcement for a group of people who have less ability than most to determine the path their lives take.  The hope is that Personal Health Budgets will change that. But will they?

It made me reflect on an important experience I had working as a commissioner in the NHS. It was a trip to meet a man about my age receiving Continuing Health Care.  I think about him quite a lot.

He’d been given a diagnosis of ‘treatment-resistant schizophrenia’ and had been moved around the country for over 10 years because of his complex needs.   After a three hour drive, I arrived at the care home where he had lived for the last five years.  We got on well and talked quite a bit.  We sat in the kitchen and I asked him about his hopes for the future.  He wanted a flat of his own.  However, he’d been told for a long time that they were hoping to sort out a flat, with little sign of progress.  He was stuck.

For the NHS, the care home placement was a success.  He was high risk but had had no hospital re-admissions in recent years.  But it did not offer him what he wanted most, to build a normal life.

When the Personal Health Budget announcement was made it occurred to me that his placement budget would have paid for a flat, a full-time support worker and employment support or training, with some left over.  I wondered whether a right to have a Personal Health Budget would have started a different conversation that day I met him.

For me, the announcement on Personal Health Budgets is part of a wider historic movement where people whose lives have been constrained by the state have been offered greater self-determination.

Why would the NHS not want people to actively determine the path of their own lives?  Should people be allowed to choose and buy their own care?

Well, there is a tension.  They might choose services that fit round their lives and not what suits the NHS.  They might decide a job is more important to them than managing the likelihood of hospital re-admissions.  But what does the evidence say?

The University of Kent controlled trial of Personal Health Budgets, involving 2,000 people, showed patients with PHBs out-performing the control group, and even had fewer hospital admissions.  It seems that patients can be experts too.

The Lancaster University Poet Survey also showed significantly improved well-being for most carers, who tend to bear a huge personal responsibility for this group.  It’s rare that we measure the impact of an intervention on families of patients, but here we have.

So we need a bigger debate about Personal Health Budgets and personalisation in the NHS.  The evidence is good, but there are tensions and the implementation challenges are significant.

Personal Health Budgets are not a panacea, but they do start a different kind of conversation.  And they are not going away.  This announcement is part of a wider historic shift towards personalisation and greater self-determination across public services, which once introduced is very hard to go back on.

So let’s hope this announcement is one small step towards a time when everyone, regardless of health need, is given the chance to determine the course of their own lives.


luke-osheaLuke O’Shea is Head of Patient Participation at NHS England.

He has previously worked in national policy and strategy roles at the Department of Health and as a commissioner in a local authority and the NHS.

Prior to that he worked in a range of government departments including leading work on early year services at the Prime Minister’s strategy unit, as a private secretary to a children’s minister and leading cross government working on ageing.

He describes as his proudest achievements his “modest role at the inception of Family Nurse Partnership in the UK and of my work on ageing”.